← Card Nation Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Card Nation Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 16.7% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 69.1% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 27.2% | -14.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duplicitous Replication | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Floating Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |